Nikkei 225: Potential breakout into a secular bull market
We continue to favor Japan’s Nikkei 225. The Nikkei 225 is pushing above the 2007 high of 18,300, which has the potential to end the secular bear market for Japan that began in 1989. This is a focus chart in our 2015 Year Ahead and our February Monthly Chart Portfolio. A sustained breakout above 18,300 would confirm a secular double bottom for the Nikkei 225 off the 2003 and 2008/2009 lows and point to longer-term upside toward 28,000-30,000. Resistances come in at 20,900-21,575 and 22,750 (mid 1996 peak). Key 2015 support for the Nikkei is 16,700-16,300 with the October and April 2014 lows additional support at 14,530-13,885 (Chart 1). Nikkei 225 shows a base even when priced in USD Given the recent weakness of Japanese Yen, the Nikkei 225 has lagged and has yet not broken out above the May 2013 peak in USD terms. However, the big picture base or bottom is intact for the Nikkei regardless of whether it is priced in Japanese Yen or US Dollars. The potential is for a big breakout the Nikkei 225 in both JPY and USD (Exhibit 1). New highs for A-D line confirm the highs in the Nikkei 225 The strength in the Nikkei 225 advance-decline (A-D) line reflects strong breadth within the Nikkei 225 and supports the case for sustained breakout above 18,300 and continued upside for Japan’s equity market (Exhibit 2).