Farhad Manjoo of the NYT explains the why the usual pattern seems to be happening with Apple:
“Analysts’ estimates vary wildly, with many originally predicting that Apple sold three million to five million watches from April to the end of June. After studying Apple’s opaque earnings report, several analysts revised their estimates down to about 1.5 million to three million watches. Even at the lower end, that’s the opposite of instant death: Luca Maestri, Apple’s chief financial officer, pointedly said the watch sold more in its first nine weeks on the market than either theiPhone or the iPad did in that same period.
Yet the future of the Apple Watch will not be determined by first-quarter sales. Apple’s product debuts tend to follow a well-worn script: A first-generation device is always criticized as overpriced and a bit lacking in utility and is often vulnerable to the charge that it is a solution in search of a problem. Then, over a few years, Apple and its customers figure out the best uses for the gadget, and the company methodically improves design and functionality to meet those needs. It also tends to lower its prices. Correspondingly, sales explode.”
–In Apple Watch Debut, Signs of a Familiar Path to Success
What if…Apple had taken a sightly different approach for the Watch and enclosed a cellular radio to make the device the “hub” of your Apple ecosystem? Think of the possibilities, you now can choose to link your iPad, iPod, Mac Book Air, et al. to your wrist device and choose to talk/text/email/communicate from any or all of them. OR, if I didn’t want to carry any device, a small Bluetooth headset is all I would need to initiate a voice call. Instead, we have an add-on device that still requires me to carry an additional device to actually speak to anyone. With the resurgence of power players carrying a simple flip-phone, it seems to me that demand exists for a simplification of communication, and isn’t Apple the master of this “simple is better” movement?
This feels different to me. Cell phones had been in use by a large percentage of the population when the iPhone was created. Discman, Walkman, etc were in heavy use when iPod was created. Even laptops were in heavy use when iPad was created (and MacBook/MacBook Air, for that matter). And iPad isn’t exactly buoying the company. Computer wrist-watches are a niche market, and I don’t see this as a quick win for Apple. They’ve got a serious uphill climb. The TV is where they should be focusing their energy…or the car. Anything but the watch. It’s DOA.
“Anything but the watch. It’s DOA.” I agree.