Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.16.16

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 16th 2016

Positives:

1. Initial jobless claims were 260k, 5k below the estimate, and essentilally the same as last week (259k). 4 week average = 261k.
2. CPI rose 0.2% m/o/m and 1.1% y/o/y. Core rose 0.3% and 2.3% respectively. The 0.3% rise was the largest since February.
3. Purchase applications to buy a home saw a nice 8.6% week over week rebound; The year over year gain was 7.7%, better than the 6.9% gain last week.
4. Wholesale prices in August were benign with headline PPI zero y/o/y while the core rate was up 1%. Same story with pressure on goods prices and price gains in services.
5. MBA mortgage applications rose 4.2% w/o/w.
6. Philly Fed business outlook survey came in at 12.8, well above expectations.

Negatives:

1. Industrial and manufacturing production fell 0.4% m/o/m.
2. US Retail sales ex auto / gasoline fell 0.1% (again) and was below the estimate of +0.3%. Core sales fell by 0.1%, below the estimate of +0.4%; Auto sales fell by 0.9% m/o/m but are still up 3.9% y/o/y. Building material sales also fell.
3. Consumer price inflation increased 0.2% headline and 0.3% core m/o/m (more than expected). The y/o/y headline gain was 1.1%, the most since January and the core rate was up by 2.3% — the highest level in 8 years.
4. NFIB small business optimism fell to 94.4, down from 94.6, and slightly below expectations.
5. Consumer sentiment fell from 90.8 to 89.8, coming in slightly below expectations.
6. Empire state manufacturing survey came in at -1.99, dragged down by the factory sector and new orders.

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