Is the Bond Bull Market Over?

We have been hearing the Bond Bull Market ois over for years. David Rosenberg gives us a roundup of someof the prior forecasts of the end of the 30+ year bond bull market.

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BOND BULL MARKET OVER … HAVEN’T WE HEARD THAT BEFORE?

In addition to the Trump rally, all I hear is how the secular bull market in Treasuries is over. It reminds me of the Merrill report back in 2010 dubbed “The Great Rotation”.

Below we list some of the past cries from the crowd of how the 30-year bull market in bonds is over. ‎Sometimes it doesn’t even take very much, either. Obama with “hope and change”. The Fed with alleged endless inflationary rounds of QE. Then the “taper tantrum”.

Of course now, the masses believe that Donald Trump can do what no central banker has been able to do.

Quite often, it is just the price action alone — like a 100+ basis point spike in 10-year Treasury note yields.

See below; my friends, we have seen this before:

2010

• Bear Market in Bonds Could Trigger Stock Market Melt Up Says Liz Ann Sonders (Chief Strategist at Charles Schwab) — Business Insider
• The term “Great Rotation” was coined in 2010 by Michael Hartnett (Chief Global Equity Strategist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research) in his monthly note

2011

• U.S. Bonds Risk 1994 Bear Market Repeat, Goldman’s O’Neill — Bloomberg
• Bill Gross: Bond Investors are Frogs that Are Being Boiled Alive — Business Insider
• Gross was right: The bond bubble will burst — MarketWatch
• 10 Ways for Investors to Get Rich on the Great Rotation — Business Insider/ Merrill Lynch

2012

• A New Great Rotation? — Reuters
• The End of the 30-year Bond Bull Market? — University of Pennsylvania, Wharton
• Six ways to Fight the Coming Bear Bond Market — Reuters
• Reading Pessimism in the Market for Bonds — New York Times
• Central Banks Risk Bond Market Crash in Turning Monetary Dial to 11 — Telegraph
• 2013 Could Mark Start of the Great Rotation — Merrill Lynch

2013

• Strategies to Protect a Portfolio From a Bond Bear Market — Wall Street Journal
• How to Navigate a Fixed-Income Bear Market — Forbes
• Bill Gross: Bull Market in Bonds Over — Wall Street Journal
• What a Bear Market in Bonds Would Actually Look like — Business Insider
• Fears of 1994 Bond Market Flashback — Reuters
• Bonds’ Point of No Return About a Standard Deviation Away — Bloomberg
• The Bond Bears — The Economist
• Preparing for the Bear Market in Bonds — The Globe and Mail
• Active Bond Funds won’t Protect you in a Bear Market — CBS News
• U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Red Alert — The Market Oracle
• Bank of America Issues ‘Bond Crash Alert’ on Fed Tightening Fears — Telegraph
• Bonds: So Much More Dangerous Than You Think — Motley Fool
• Bond Funds Stink? What to do Now — USA Today
• BofA Declares: The Great Rotation is Here — Business Insider
• Time for the Great Rotation? — The Economist
• “The Great Rotation”: Why you should buy any shares

2014

• Don’t Get too Comfortable with Low Bond Yields — CNBC
• This is the ‘Doomsday’ Bond Market Scenario — CNBC
• Bonds: Will They Really Protect Your Portfolio? — Barron’s
• Bond Markets: Fasten Your Seatbelts, Possible Turbulence Ahead —Forbes
• BofA: The ‘Great Rotation’ is Going to Make a Big Comeback — Business Insider

2015

• How to Avoid the Coming 25 Year Bond Bear Market — Forbes
• Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market —Business Insider
• Bond Bears Hope for Relief in 2016 — Wall Street Journal
• When the Bond Bear Market Really Hits, the Way People Talk is going to Change — Bloomberg
• Bond Bears Return on Hopes of Greece Deal — CNBC
• Is the Air Coming Out of the Bond Market Bubble — The Fiscal Times
• This time the ‘Great Rotation’ May be a Thing — CNBC

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David Rosenberg

Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.

www.gluskinsheff.com