Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.2.18

Succinct Summations for the week ending November 2nd, 2018

Positives:

1. Non-farm payrolls rose 250k m/o/m; Unemployment unchanged at 3.7%
2. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% for the year
3. Same store sales rose 5.9% w/o/w, up from previous 5.5% increase.
4. Non-farm productivity rose 2.2% in Q3, meeting expectations.
5. Construction spending rose 7.2% y/o/y, greater than previous 6.5% increase.
6. Consumer confidence came in at 137.9 in October, still at 18-year highs.
7. Jobless claims fell 2k w/o/w, from 216k to 214k.

Negatives:

1. NFP + Wage Gains = FOMC Rate Hike in December
2. Personal income rose 0.2% m/o/m, missing expected 0.4% increase.
3. Slowdown in pace of RE transactions is reflected in weaker home price gains. S&P CoreLogic’s 20 city composite index Prices rose 5.5% y/o/y in August, slowest since December 2016. (We’ve priced out too many buyers so this is not a bad thing)
4. Mortgage applications fell a seasonally-adjusted 2.0% w/o/w, down from previous 2.0% increase.
5. Announced layoffs came in at 75,644 for October, greater than September’s 55,285.
6. Trade deficit widened to $-54.0B in September from previous $-53.2B.
7. ISM Mfg index fell 2.1 points from 59.8 to 57.7 for October.

Thanks, Matt!

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