Succinct Summations for the week ending August 2nd, 2019
Positives:
1. FOMC cuts rate 25 basis points, spurring trader hopes of “lower for longer.”
2. Non-farm payrolls rose 164k m/o/m, above the expected 151k.
3. Personal income rose 0.4% m/o/m, above the expected increase of 0.3%.
4. Unemployment rate came in at 3.7%, meeting expectations.
5. Same store sales rose 4.5% w/o/w
6. Pending home sales rose 2.8% m/o/m, above the expected increase of 0.5%.
7. ADP employment report shows an increase of 156k in private payrolls for July.
8. Consumer sentiment came in at 98.4 for July; Consumer confidence rose to 135.7 in July.
Negatives:
1. Tariff Man returned, roiling markets, and undoing whatever positives there were in the rate cuts;
2. “Mid-cycle adjustment” comment by Chairman Powell disappoints markets, who were hoping for a longer rate cutting cycle.
3. Jobless claims rose 8k w/o/w from 207k to 215k.
4. Construction spending fell 1.3% m/o/m, lower than the expected 0.3% increase.
5. Home mortgage apps fell 3.0% w/o/w, below the previous 2.0% decrease.
6. Factory orders rose 0.6% m/o/m, below the expected increase of 0.8%.
7. Same store sales decelerated from previous increase of 4.9%.
8. ISM Mfg Index fell 0.5 points m/o/m, from 51.9 to 51.2; PMI Manufacturing Index fell 0.2 points w/o/w from 50.6 to 50.4.
Thanks, Matt!
