GDP Update: -52.8%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta



Ok, this is now getting a little scary:

The real time GDP running estimate of US economic activity is half of what it was 3 months ago. As of June 1, the Atlanta Fed is nowcasting that economic activity in the United States, as measured in GDP, is minus 52.8%.

Given the extent of the collapse in demand that has accompanied quarantines and shelter-in-place orders, this is not a surprise. Still, when you see the number in print, it still has the capacity to shock.

Understand, this is a snapshot of GDP on any given day. This is not GDP for the year, not even for the quarter — it reflects the moment, and not a longer time period.

Still, I never expected to see anything like this in my lifetime . . .




Atlanta Fed: GDP is -42.8% (May 18, 2020)

Fed Battle of ForeNowcasting! (April 14, 2016)

Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (May 18, 2016)

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