My mid-week morning train WFH reads:
• Ignore the Price, Remember the Dividends For most of history, the price you paid would have had far less of an impact on your long-term returns than something you might have not even noticed. What am I referring to? Dividends. Reinvested dividends. (Of Dollars And Data)
• Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974 Currently there are 712,000 single family units under construction, the highest level since 2007. There are 714,000 multi-family units under construction, the highest level since 1974 (Calculated Risk) see also Will 4% Mortgage Rates “Halt the Housing Market”? Some comments on an interview with Ivy Zelman, who has a solid track record, and is focused primarily on new housing (single and multi-family). (Calculated Risk)
• Fed Staff Says Wall Street Is Getting Inflation Call All Wrong Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues expect elevated inflation to abate next year. Noteworthy: The Fed’s staff forecasts for inflation have been historically more accurate than consensus forecasts, and by a significant amount. (Bloomberg)
• The Economic Rebound Is Still Waiting for Workers: Despite school reopenings and the end of some federal aid, many people are in no rush to land a job. Savings and health concerns are playing a role. (New York Times)
• Welcome to Britain, the bank scam capital of the world An unprecedented wave of online bank fraud hitting Britain, where you’re more likely to be a victim of online fraud than any other crime. The country is the global epicentre for such attacks, according to five of the biggest British banks and more than a dozen security experts who said scammers were buying up batches of consumers’ personal details on the dark net to target the record numbers shopping and banking online since the pandemic. (Reuters)
• Today’s Tech Founders Don’t Just Own the Company. They’re Also Getting Huge Pay Packages. Startup creators once tended to take little or no remuneration as CEOs. Now, some are getting giant stock awards, making them among America’s best-compensated corporate chiefs. (Wall Street Journal)
• Exile from Dongletown If Mac laptops come in eras, one just ended. The new MacBook Pro models roll back the major changes introduced in 2016, putting the laptops in a new state of grace that recalls the middle of the last decade. (Sixcolors) see also Apple Watch Series 7 Seven generations in, it seems clear that Apple has pursued a consistent Platonic ideal for Apple Watch from the start, in terms of its shape, size, and display. (Daring Fireball)
• Covid conspiracy theories are driving people to anti-Semitism online Old and overtly anti-Semitic fantasies are gaining new adherents, and far-right activists have been working to convert anti-lockdown beliefs to anti-Semitism too. (MIT Technology Review)
• How close were we to an actual stolen election — stolen by Trump? One thing has become pretty clear in recent weeks: This plot was foiled in large part because the Justice Department and Vice President Mike Pence opted not to go along with it. But what if they had? Or what if Trump had followed through on firing acting attorney general Jeffrey A. Rosen and replacing him with the Justice Department official who was willing to do his bidding, Jeffrey Clark? (Washington Post)
• Writing “Eleanor Rigby” How one of the Beatles’ greatest songs came to be. My life is full of these happy accidents, and, coming back to where the name Eleanor Rigby comes from, my memory has me visiting Bristol, where Jane Asher was playing at the Old Vic. I was wandering around, waiting for the play to finish, and saw a shop sign that read “Rigby,” and I thought, That’s it! It really was as happenstance as that. When I got back to London, I wrote the song in Mrs. Asher’s music room in the basement of 57 Wimpole Street, where I was living at the time. (New Yorker)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Soraya Darabi, co-founder and general partner of TMV. The firm has funded a broad cross-section of startups, 65% of which are led by women or people of color. Less than 5 years old, TMV has already had 10 exits.
None of the last 10 US recessions have occurred without the 2s10s inverting and with a median lead time of 16 months
Source: Deutsche Bank
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