My morning train WFH reads:
• Most stock pickers underperformed in 2022’s ‘stock picker’s market’ In a report published in 2021, SPDJI found that only 22% of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index itself from 2000 to 2020. Over that measurement period, the S&P 500 gained 322%, while the median stock rose by just 63%. (TKer)
• The inside story of how ChatGPT was built from the people who made it: Conversations that take us behind the scenes of a cultural phenomenon. (MIT Technology Review) see also Slack’s new ChatGPT bot will talk to your colleagues for you: Like Microsoft and Google, Slack owner Salesforce is shoving an AI chatbot into its workplace software to automatically write simple messages and summarize meetings. (The Verge)
• Market Timing & Interest Rates: Short-term interest rates continue to charge higher as the economy remains stronger than anticipated. We’re looking at 5% yields across the board for short-term government bonds. Some people will still scoff at these yields by reminding you that inflation is still 6% but let’s be honest — right or wrong, most investors think in nominal terms, not real. (Wealth of Common Sense)
• Are you short Jim or long Jim? It’s gimmicks all the way down as investors are apparently willing to pay 1-per-cent fees to trade against Jim Cramer as a bit. ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯ (Financial Times)
• Corporate Pension Funds Lobbied for a Rule Change. Now It’s Coming Back to Haunt Them. Rising rates have radically shifted how corporate plans calculate discount rates. (Institutional Investor)
• Hot Dogs Can Explain How Our View of Inflation and Employment Changes With the Seasons: Routine adjustments based on time of year can dramatically change how economic figures are perceived. (Wall Street Journal)
• Six Things the Investment Industry Can Do to Change the World: What can be done to restore trust and promote personal integrity? (CFA Institute)
• Contrary to latest claims, there’s still not a speck of evidence that COVID escaped from a Chinese lab: Almost from the start, the lab leak theory has been reliant on conjecture and fueled by Trumpian ideology that has infected, like the pathogens in all those zombie movies and TV shows, the entire Republican Party. For them, the claim that the pandemic escaped from a Chinese laboratory to infect the world is a convenient weapon to wield against China and perhaps hobble its ability to challenge America’s global economic primacy. (Los Angeles Times)
• ‘We have to remain vigilant’: Biden warns of ‘hate and extremism’ in the US: The president spoke in Selma at the site of ‘Bloody Sunday’ that led to passage of historic voting rights legislation nearly 60 years ago. (The Guardian)
• ‘It’s Draining Men’: When Citizens Name Municipal Fixtures, the Puns Flow Freely: ‘Bin Diesel’ the garbage truck and a street cleaner called ‘Sweeping Beauty’ are some of the winners. (Wall Street Journal)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Rich Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA), which was founded in 2009 and is running $14.6B in assets. Previously, he was Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch, where he had worked for 21 years. Bernstein was named to the Institutional Investor’s “All-America Research Team” 18 times and has been inducted into the Institutional Investor “Hall of Fame.” He is the author of “Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype.”
How Tight Is U.S. Monetary Policy?
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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