Predictions and Forecasts

Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting
 (, June 7, 2005)
The Mystery of the Awful Economists (TBP March 2, 2005)

The Illusory World of Economic Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2006)

Worst Predictions for 2008 (TBP, December 31, 2008)

Why Diss Economic Forecasters (The Big Picture, 2009)
In Stock: Bad Holiday Sales Forecasts (The Big Picture, 2009)
Why Economists Missed the Crises (The Big Picture, January 2009)

When Do Surprises (Sometimes) = Forecasts? (The Big Picture, 2010)
Forecasting With a Grain of Salt (The Big Picture, 2010)
Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs (The Big Picture, 2010)

Inside the Paradox of Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2011)
Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2011)
Fed Forecasts? PUH-Leeze! (The Big Picture, 2011)
On Optimistic Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2011)
Earnings Recession Forecast Errors (The Big Picture, 2011)
NY Fed: The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession (The Big Picture, 2011)
Guru Time of Year (The Big Picture, 2011)
Inside the Paradox of Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2011)
Business Investing in 2012: Get ahead of forecaster folly (Washington Post, December 30, 2011)

Why Are Economists So Bad At Forecasting Recessions? (The Big Picture, 2012)
How to Win at Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2012)
The Tiresome Holiday Sales Forecast Pattern (The Big Picture, 2012)

Wrongstradamus: The Money Losing Forecasts of Michael Boskin (The Big Picture, 2013)
Forecasts Are Not Analysis; They are opinion (The Big Picture, 2013)
Blame the Economists . . . (The Big Picture, August 6, 2013)
Forecasting the Future is Hard; Forecasting Markets is Even Harder (The Big Picture, 2013)
Why Do We Pay Attention to Fed Forecasts (The Big Picture, 2013)
What’s Your Forecast? (The Big Picture, 2013)
Why Do Forecasters Keep Forecasting? (The Big Picture, December 11, 2013)

The Seer Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2014)
Despite Abysmal Track Records, Forecasters Keep Forecasting (The Big Picture, 2014)
Outcome or process — what investment focus succeeds over time? (Washington Post, 2014)
Fun With Forecasting: 2014 Review (The Big Picture, 2014)

I Come Not to Praise Forecasters, But to Bury Them (The Big Picture, 2015)
Forecasting Is Marketing (The Big Picture, 2015)
No, Everything Is Not a Forecast (The Big Picture, 2015)
Market Forecasters Are Like Blind Squirrels (The Big Picture, 2015)
A Brief Word to Forecasters: STFU (The Big Picture, 2015)
Attention Forecasters: STFU (The Big Picture, 2015)
The Halo Effect: Bad Forecasts by Billionaires (The Big Picture, 2015)
Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast? (The Big Picture, 2015)
It’s time to market forecasters to admit the errors of their ways (Washington Post, 2015)

MiB: Philip Tetlock (The Big Picture, 2016)
Cherry Picking Your Favorite GDP Forecast (The Big Picture, 2016)
The End Is Nigh! Oops. That Was Only a Forecast. (Bloomberg View, 2016)
In the Mood for Holiday Forecasting Follies (Bloomberg View, 2016)
Black Friday is a Comin’! (The Big Picture, 2016)
Your Forecast on the Fives (The Big Picture, 2016)

Forecasting’s Problem is Philosophy, Not Track Record (The Big Picture, 2017)
The Philosophical Failings of Forecasting (Bloomberg View, 2017)

Black Friday Forecasts Are Here Again (TBP, November 23, 2018) Bloomberg

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