Forbes magazine:
"Herein is a formula for making a lot of money as a money manager. Have
a shtick, get known, wait for your sector to get hot. In the 1970s
James Dines acquired fame and fortune by being a gold bug. In the 1990s
George Gilder minted money as a fan of technology stocks. In the past
six years Renee Haugerud’s Galtere International Fund ( FORBES, Jan. 20, 2003) has grown from $1 million in client capital to $1.5 billion by being in commodities . . .
That was the reductio ad absurdum paragraph from what I can only describe as a really weird hit piece from Forbes on Peter Schiff. I’m not sure why they are took this route, but the column is rather unsatisfying in both its critique and its proof:
"Schiff’s Chicken Little take on the U.S.
economy–that it is on the brink of collapse–isn’t new. He’s been
serving up the same spiel for a decade. But these days he’s getting
more applause than eye-rolling from jittery investors. He’s also
getting a lot of attention from financial media outlets, in part
because he has mastered the delivery of three-alarm sound bites. ("The
consumer is in great trouble!" "Things are worse than in the 1970s!")Schiff
perfected his rant in stock newsletters in the late 1990s, when few
investors had heard of him or Euro Pacific. He posted commentaries on
his Web site and started sending them to CNBC. His first big media hit
came in April 2005, when CNBC asked him to appear on Squawk Box.
Schiff faced a hostile panel when he said the dollar would lose half
its value–which still hasn’t happened. That first interview ended with
the host, Mark Haines, saying: "I don’t know whether to shoot him or
shoot myself."
Now, if Schiff is really such a perma-bear who has been negative and wrong on US stocks for 10 years, that would be worth discussing. There must be 100s of examples of his bad calls if that’s the case. But oddly, Forbes cites exactly zero examples online. (I haven’t seen the dead tree version).
Such bald accusations make for poor journalism. If you are going to make that claim, then back it up. Is it asking too much to pull a few wrong trades as evidence? Can you show me the guy was Bearish on Tech in 1998, hated dividend payers in 2002, avoided firms Oil firms in 2003, sold industrials in 2004, dissed the miners in 2005, shorted exporters in 2006? Just imagine what a similar hit piece on Jim Cramer would have to include.
Anyone who works on Wall St. long enough should be able to pull a long
list of pretty bad calls over the years. (My own list of market boners is extensive). If you are any decent at running money/doing stock or market analysis, however, the good ones should outweigh the bads ones.
What’s so very odd about this whole affair is, at its core, a critique of a strategy that is making investors money. Weird.
I’m not looking to defend Schiff — he’s a big boy, and can do that on his own. My beef is with Forbes — its a sloppy work.
What I was singularly disappointed with involved the lauding of George Gilder’s 1990’s success. What Forbes failed to mention was what came after: From 2000 forward, Gilder’s readers lost 44%, then 43%, then 56% in each successive year (WSJ). Apparently, it was okay for George Gilder Newsletter to lose 89.4% of his readers money, because he was permanently bullish.
Oh, and one other thing: Gilder’s newsletter is a joint publishing venture with Forbes, another disclosure also somehow misplaced in the column. Shame on Forbes for omitting that disclosure; if Schiff had done that, it would be worthy of an SEC/NASD investigation.
According to this article, making money by identifying risk is somehow not good, but losing nearly all of it by cheerleading the tech bubble is A-okay. That doesn’t seem very much like the Forbes "free market" ideology I know from over the years. Then again, it is an election year.
Capitalist tool? The article makes them look more like capitalist fools to me . . .
>
UPDATE: February 23, 2008 9:29am
Schiff discusses the Forbes piece in a radio interview here.
>
Source:
Spin Cycle
Michael Maiello
Forbes, 03.10.08
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0310/072.html
Previously:
Where Are They Now: George Gilder
MARCELO PRINCE
WSJ, May 8, 2006
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114433479738318882.html
George Gilder: So THAT explains it
Tuesday, May 09, 2006 | 07:15 AM http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/05/george_gilder_s.html
Gilder Technology Report
Gildertech: "GTR is published by Gilder Publishing, LLC in association with Forbes Inc., 1996-2007"
http://www.gildertech.com/
Spin Cycle–at least you can’t argue that the piece is not aptly named.
Pete Schiff’s mantra is three-part
1. America’s Manufacturing Base has been gutted
2. There is an inflationary printing frenzy going on
3. Put your money in commodities and non-dollar assets
Steve Forbes would tell you the same thing if this weren’t an election year.
Hands off Capitalism indeed.
My favorite story from the early 1980’s was the one about Steve’s Dad, Malcom and other movers and shakers lobbying the U.S. International Trade Commission to impose a 45% tariff on big CC foreign motorcycles thereby saving Harley. The “pack” loved their Harleys.
Harley then went retro and outsourced most of their parts to foreign manufacturers. They still claim to be American Made.
Forbe’s claim of being a “Capitalist Tool” is utter nonsense. Just a bunch of Political shills.
Sour grapes from me. That’ll teach them not to leave me off their 500 list last year…
Perhaps Forbes is just a little embarrassed about its own columnists and the fact nobody wants to hear from them…since they were wrong. Take that lovable Ken Fisher:
Most of the lackluster performance of my picks came from a very wrong decision in February to jump into housing stocks. Beazer Homes, my worst choice, was down 79%.
He states in his Jan 2008 explanation for his lame 2007 performance.
I guess Peter Schiff knows at least 3 things that Kenny boy does not.
The whole Ken Fisher mea culpa column is great BTW. Paraphrased…”It’s all the yen’s fault otherwise we’d be rich.
They’re just doing a hitpiece on him because he endorsed Ron Paul.
I disagree that our manufacturing base has been gutted. I’m a publisher of trade magazines for metalworking, plastics, screw machining, moldmaking, and composites. Our customers are doing quite well now and so are we.
Now, the nature of what is being manufactured and how it is being manufactured has certainly changed, but the U.S. still does a whole lot of very important manufacturing. We don’t manufacture as many durable consumer goods but we do manufacture a whole bunch of aerospace and energy-related stuff (whether oil, new sources, or energy reduction plays). That part of manufacturing is booming right now. Machines manufacturers can hardly keep up with the capital requirements of manufacturers in these areas. As for workers in these areas, many of these manufacturers can’t find people with high enough skills to run the large and complicated machines that make this stuff. Plus, because of the dollar, supply chain issues, and quality issues more and more of the old-line manufacturing stuff is moving back to the U.S.
Perma Bull vs PermaBear Bear….
I’ve never found Forbes to be useful, I get my Nonsense cheer-leading from that Girl on CNBC… Dennis somebody.
And Schiff can be so spot-on it’s ridiculous… that guy Bats in the high .700 .
doesn’t mean he can’t miss
That story was definitely “Sour Grapes”, Any time someone talks about having their money managed, there is no higher recommendation I can give than Europac.
It was fairly pathetic that a professional magazine would act like that… but not surprising.
Can we make it capitalist tools instead of fools?
Why I quit reading Forbes years ago….
Barry, take a look at Schiff’s book Crashproof published about a year ago. I don’t agree with his inflationist theories, but if you look at his investment advice, it has been bang on. Some of his prognosis: FNM and FRE will be in trouble (they now are), Canadian assets are a good bet (they have been), emerging markets will out perform and gold will rise (of course).
Anyone who followed his advice last year should be sitting on a pretty hefty return right now.
Re: manufacturing base.
It’s very true that what remains of our industrial/farming base is doing well… but that In my opinion doesn’t exclude the thesis that it has been gutted.
We should see a rebuild of this base in our economy over the next 10 years…. Until it becomes overbuilt and is another bust cycle…
rhyme with Eventies anyone?
Just don’t be the Farmer who takes out a big farm loan in may of 1981
should it be surprising considering that idiot Dennis Neal on CNBC. This guy was an editor at Forbes. I wouldn’t be surprised if CNBC has put the press on santelli to lighten up on the reality talk. Everyone keeps asking why the markets aren;t going down – it is probably a safe assumption that an invisibale hand is at work – originating at Treasury/Fed.
When I read things like below, I can’t help being a schiff fan. Pulled this from an article in Bloomberg from yesterday:
“From 1984 through 2006, only 13 auctions failed, typically because of changes in the credit of the borrower, according to Moody’s Investors Service. There were 31 failures in the second half of 2007, and 32 during a two-week period beginning in January. That compares with more than 480 failures yesterday alone, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank AG, Wilmington Trust Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp.”
First, this is a BP post on Forbes, not the merits of Mr. Schiff. Forbes lost its way when the old man died, and has drifted further into the abyss over time. The “journalistic” standards of a yesteryear have been replaced by mutual fund shill tactics and the occasional “Where’d that come from?” hatchet jobs. This latest one shouldn’t be a surprise, but if you’re looking for a higher standard, it does disappoint.
It troubles me that such a intelligent group of blog followers here actually watch the “cheerleading” squad at CNBC. My taste is actually Bloomberg and/or Fox Business… You can catch all the thrills and spills of Peter Schiff at Fox quite regularly.
frankly the fact that dennis kneale (sp?)came out of forbes pretty much tells the story.
HOW THE HELL DOES HE GET FACE TIME EVERYDAY BEING 100% DEAD WRONG!
he must have sucked his way to the top. damn log cabin’s!
Contra-Trader, don’t confuse amusement with real news. Many of us watch it for S & G if ya know what I mean. We only watch it for real when Barry is on! :>)!!
Erik, Damn Log Cabins…ROFLMAO!! It’s Friday, so don’t paint ugly pictures in our minds.
I canceled my Forbes subscription about 10 years ago, as I became tired of reading what I thought were good articles only to find some gratuitis slam at a Kennedy halfway through. I’m no fan of the Kennedy’s but it became obvious that to “make your bones” at Forbes you had to be ideologically pure. Making money has little to do w/ideology. Interestingly enough, after subscribing for 25 years, I never go a followup letter, call, etc. I guess they must have sold some eggs.
I read the article differently and got that Forbes was attempting to say that each decade produces a guy that is spot on and becomes somewhat famous, but that those same people are quite fallible and usually turn out to be one-trick ponies (which they all are).
I read the article differently and got that Forbes was attempting to say that each decade produces a guy that is spot on and becomes somewhat famous, but that those same people are quite fallible and usually turn out to be one-trick ponies (which they all are).
The market just opened. I don’t want to see no stinkin’ decline today unless it’s only a buying opportunity. This Schiff fellow would probably love to see everybody make money today, except for doofus short sellers who will have to cover before the close.
A couple percent a week until summer, that’s all we need. That’s not asking too much. Everybody wins at this speed, if you buy today. It’s not going any lower. You all understand this, don’t you.
Buy today. Make money. Sell this summer. Buy things with the ginormous profits. That’s all there is to it.
Fischer’s excuse sounds like a 2 year old.
“market dislocation”
Reading most SEC filings you would think it was a pandemic of dislocations, and weather, and volatility, and anything other than poor day to day management.
Forbes still has a magazine?….
Ciao
MS
What a multiple list of interesting comments.
1. Mfg: has been and is doing very well. Value-add in the economy has held up nicely, portion of GDP as well. What’s gotten hit is the employment base as a) the base of the economy shifts (natural outcome of growth) to services and b)as mfg process & technology shifts to more sophisticated foundations – hence the shortage of skilled workers. Can you speall DNC/NC (numerically controlled machine tools). As investors we should all dig into and learn that stuff.
2. How can you not watch CNBC ? It’s cheaper than Penthouse online (oops), women are prettier and far more intelligent, occasionally you pick something up and in any case it’s as good a sentiment indicator as is.
3. Dennis Kneale – the operations were clearly successful, all of them. The lobotomy (Cuckoo indeed – where’s my pillow),the branding (actually it’s a gelding)and the pithing. If they’d put him out of our miseries who’d hold down that end of the curve ?
4. Forbes – btw believe the old man was not only a biker but a gay biker. After all he was a big Babs fan. Never much of a fan then and find it, not content-free, but content-rich. Unfortunately toxic content. But then we can compare and contrast the WSJ ed pages which have never recovered from supply-side and gold buggery. If they’ll keep publishing Feldstein et.al. I’ll read but not there stuff. Sadly.
Harley then went retro and outsourced most of their parts to foreign manufacturers. They still claim to be American Made
That might come as a surprise to the MANY Harley suppliers which are based in Wisconsin (e.g.) and which employ hundreds of Milwaukee-area workers.
Having said that, it’s clear that Forbes is the last “respectable” name clearly endorsing Ayn Rand’s philosophy. Look no further than his/their insistence on the “flat” tax vs. the “fair” tax.
I canceled Forbes several years ago, but guess what? They keep sending it to me! Haven’t paid for it in years, yet I still get it to throw out w/ the rest of the junk mail. There are so many better sources–why waste the time?
I never subscribed to Forbes, but picked it up occasionally while traveling. I could never answer the question, ” How is this magazine going to help me make money” It had a pedigree,but that was about it. Dennis Kneale was an editor there before becoming a cheerleader at Bubblevision? Thank god I left it on the seat of my airplane.
The market just opened. I don’t want to see no stinkin’ decline today unless it’s only a buying opportunity.
Posted by: cinefoz | Feb 22, 2008 9:47:18 AM
cheese dad – No surprise. No different than WalMart who waved the flag until they couldnt afford it anymore. Forbes and old J Peter Grace both got the silver spoon in the wrong place.
Schiff’s personality on TV is overwhelming. Though he’s right (right now), he tends to give the same mantra over and over.
Though I’m very bearish on the economy, I for one, am sick and tired of hearing his shtick. No one (not even us bears) want to see America become a third world country.
After my little rant yesteday on this matter, it is with great interest, and a satisfying smile that I read this, this morning. Apparently I was not alone in my thoughts. Thanks.
Sorry, dad29.
I haven’t followed Harley for years. I guess it is like Honda. The whole car used to come over on a boat way back when. Now they source parts and assemble here.
Just a frustrated BMW biker. No offence.
Help me out here – the reason why anyone would pay attention to Forbes magazine is……???
This from a magazine owned by a guy who doesn’t think, or didn’t know, that wages paid to employees are a deductible expense for a firm.
Donny..
dont get into false nationalism sentiment..
we need to listen to gloom stories only for the reason that the doom can be prevented from actually happening…
if left unchecked all the financial engineering and political band-aiding can reduce america to one among the 10 developed countries struggling to make ends meet…..not the number one developed country it is right now.
“If you fake the funk your nose will grow”
– George Clinton
Peter Schiff’s nose ain’t growing. Rewind the tape on just about any interview from CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News over the last few years [he has them all archived on the EuroPac website] and here is what you’ll see: the other “analysts” deride his analysis and predictions as the ravings of a madman. Then, in the course of the next few weeks or months, what he says comes true! And post facto, nobody wants to acknowledge that he was ever right. Apart from Ben Stein I do not think anyone has ever apologized to Peter for chiding him, and then being proven wrong.
Also, I’ve been with his firm since 2004 and let me tell you the RETURNS HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTELY FAN-EFFING-TASTIC. Peter is not hiding money under mattresses. There is always a bull market somewhere… and he’s found lots of them.
Mike
A pretty lousy article given the premise. And the premise has some merit. Schiff’s book was one I got for Christmas as well as Rogers latest. While there was much to like in Schiff’s book I became increasingly bothered by the constant selling of Euro-Pacific. I felt like I was on a car lot while reading the book.
I then went to the e-p website and downloaded a couple of “market analyses.” They were okay but didn’t tell me anything new; the same info was available elsewhere for free.
You have to give a phone number and email address to download from e-p (I know, I know). I then started getting multiple e-mails and phone calls from e-p brokers. I can’t afford a “full-service” broker and had visions of my capital becoming e-p capital.
And some of Schiff’s rants on TV are complete turnoffs.
Still, I’m sure he does very well by and for his clients; I just can’t be one of them.
— Harley then went retro and outsourced most of their parts to foreign manufacturers. They still claim to be American Made —
Harleys have been retro since the Honda 750 four was introduced. And as dad29 said all the US companies making parts for Harley would be surprised. Harley is smart and they make good bikes. They are an international company and get the best they can. If Showa has better shocks or Brembo better brakes, they use them. Or hire Porsche Design.
AQR Capital Management LLC’s largest hedge fund fell almost 15 percent this year through Feb. 15 as market swings tripped up computer models the managers use to make trades, two people with knowledge of the matter said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aci29mS9gZ6Y&refer=home
The assets of AQR’s Absolute Return fund dropped to $2.9 billion last month from $4 billion in the fourth quarter, said the people, who declined to be identified because the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm doesn’t publicly disclose the data. AQR’s smaller Asset Allocation fund lost at least 16 percent of value.
Quantitative managers who rely on computers to make trades have struggled as global equity markets declined. Assets managed by AQR, co-founded in 1998 by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. managing director Clifford Asness, slipped more than 20 percent to $8.6 billion in the past six months because of investment losses and client redemptions.
———————————————
As predicted (and very much to my liking), these levered Hedge Funds – that have been supporting the markets, have started dying a natural/slow death. They are AGAIN experiencing another “100 stardard deviation event/100 year flood event” that they had experienced in August, and in November! Talk about misunderstanding bull market for brains – perfect example of how stupid these PhD and their models can be!
But then again, we can save the “free-markets” and these greedy banks by spinning a “bank out” as poor “home-owner” bailout story! Watch out for this proposal to gain momentum as markets fall more – Hey it is an election year, if the “conservatives” can spend $1 trillion on war, they will surely will agree on this one! Doesn’t matter what happens to savers – who get paid 0.5% on their savings, doesn’t matter if oil goes to $100+ and inflation stays high!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html?ex=1290056400%26en=2f6d16cf621cd32f%26ei=5035%26partner=MARKETWATCH
Bank of America, which is in the process of acquiring Countrywide Financial and has potentially huge exposure, has circulated a proposal to create a new federal agency that would buy vast quantities of delinquent mortgages at a deep discount and replace them with fixed-rate federally guaranteed loans.
I canceled Forbes years ago, because their journalism was so bad. This article is in a long run of articles that are just awful.
Anyone who talks badly about the market or the economy is criticized and people who are bullish are lauded.
Poor magazine.
Good work Barry, as usual.
One correction.
James Dines correct in the 70s?
He’s been bullish on gold, palladium, uranium et al for years. I’m sure you know what’s happened to the price of those lately.
I thought James Michaels was a good editor, I am not so sure of Baldwin. Rich Karlgarrrd is another clown, he recommend Novell at 30 when Schmidt ran it into the ground (can someone tell me why Schmidt is a billionaire?)Lisa Hess, Biriyni, Schilling have all been wrong also. Grant’s been OK lately with his gold calls.
As you can tell I still subscribe..
Pete M
The article wasn’t THAT bad. Some of you guys are a little on the hypersensitive side.
Dennis Kneale
This tool has never had a critical thought enter his head, ever. All his questions are about slavishly pleasing his corporate sponsors. He’s one of the greatest power worshipping fools on investment television. (Kudlow is too but with more grace) I like how the real journalists on squak laugh in his face. Denny – read a book, grow a spine, stop repeating AEI memos, we know all the laugh lines already.
Like I said yesterday, I’d vote for Paul if I thought he stood a chance because Schiff is his economic advisor. I don’t know about the last ten years but I’ve been reading his articles at other sites for over a year now and everything he has indicated will happen, has. And if he’s half way right about the future, we are in big trouble. Forbes, Forbes magazine and Forbes on Fox are jokes!
dad 29-
You need to look at where those parts are manufactured. The list of ‘merican made parts is pretty short. Nevermind having to charge $39 for a t-shirt that is worth maybe $5…..
Fun Fact…..HOG is the largest shareholder of it’s own shares above $70…based on it’s ill-timed buybacks. You see when the execs. sold and you start to understand why they bought it at that level. Now if you are a shareholder……and watched all that happen…..you deserve whatever you get.
Waving the flag ( what HOG’s mgmt does all the time) is not a strategy…but some confuse it for one.
Caveat short HOG low 50’s
ciao
MS
I would think that all companies that are doing buy backs in a quarter, would buy them at the price of the 14 week low… wait a quarter and do it again…. if you don’t hit that price during the quarter just wait till the next quarter and buy twice as much….
I don’t know.
I read the piece differently – I thought they were saying that Dines, Gilder, Haugerud, and Shiff all had the same secret to success – pick a position and stay with it until the market happens to agree with you. How else can you interpret: “Herein is a formula for making a lot of money as a money manager. Have a shtick, get known, wait for your sector to get hot.”
In that way they are saying Gilder and Shiff are in the same mold and are negative on both, not saying that Gilder was right and Shiff is wrong.
@Steve:
“That part of manufacturing is booming right now. Machines manufacturers can hardly keep up with the capital requirements of manufacturers in these areas. As for workers in these areas, many of these manufacturers can’t find people with high enough skills to run the large and complicated machines that make this stuff.”
This is a point that surfaces time and again: Workers have a hell of a hard time finding meaningful training in a changing manufacturing environment, with the result that employers can’t get the skilled workforce they need.
Steve, can you provide some insights regarding how do employers resolve that conundrum? I know that the US government is below subpar regarding re-training of the unemployed and whether we like it or not, it is becoming a drag on the economy.
Thank you in advance
Forbes, like Kudlow, have become shills for financial Lysonkoism, where all market predictions must serve the Party Line of national-greatness optimism and Republican policies.
financial Lysenkoism
Man that is brillant.
Knowing that Crash Proof was composed in 2005 and reads like anything from today’s “dead tree media” business news, my money is with Schiff’s vision and not Forbes reactions.
It’s simple, Schiff is now well known enough to be a visible to TPTB so the political style smear is in.
“Have a shtick, get known, wait for your sector to get hot.”
I have some sympathy for Forbes, because this quote applies to a lot of no-talent bozos (Jim Rogers comes to mind), and I definitely agree with the premise. But I agree with your points as well – the article COULD have offered some evidence of bad calls by Schiff, and SHOULD have disclosed the relationship with Gilder.
Forbes is a generally terrible business magazine. Not just because they are often wrong, and irrational in their views, but also because they are hipocrites.
I just look at the entire mag as a badly done Op / Ed column, and leave it alone.
Peter Schiff’s maybe short on social skills and a sense of humour maybe, but he calls the markets right and all his TV discussions are on permanent display on his web site.
I think he is destined to be the Cassandra of the financial sector.
I agree with several of the posters above. This article was not praising George Gilder.
For all you Ken Fisher fans, here’s a quote from a column on 8/10/07:
“The current hysteria has all the markings of a true correction. It came out of nowhere, fueled by a big story (melting credit markets) that we’ll later see as no big deal.”
My beef with Peter is that he hardly ever talks about US ASSETS..if you are going to rant about all of the negative issues (and there are a lot) you have to address the other side.
Staying open minded is very difficult. Moreover, Peter also does not mention the fact that Europe and several other areas have many of the same problems that the US does (Europe)
That being said….he keeps it interesting!
I have lost all respect for Steve Forbes and will never listen to that two-faced character assassin, visit his ad-spewing trash website or peruse his bloviated, vanity press yellow journalist publication again.