The Ticker Tape Parade Indicator

Last week, we discussed how not to get suckered into bad probability analysis when confronted with market history proving this or that (What Investors Need to Know About Historical Data).

We looked at several statistically insignificant examples. 

This morning, Bill King points out another amusing coincidence: The Ticker Tape Parade Indicator:

• The NY Giants won their first Super Bowl in 1987; the Great US Stock Market Crash appeared later.

• The NY Giants won their second Super Bowl in 1991; the last US full-blown recession appeared; money center banks barely avoided the abyss.

• Before yesterday, the last NYC ticker-tape parade was 2000 (Yankees); the Great US Stock Bubble burst.

• The NY Giants won their third Super Bowl in 2008 and received a ticker-tape parade; head to the caves!

Now, you know I don’t believe any of these, but its still an amusing coincidence,  on par with its forecasting acumen and mathematical likelihood of the Superbowl Indicator . . .

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Discussions found on the web:
  1. The Dirty Mac commented on Feb 6

    The Jets/Mets parades in 1969 also coincided with a declining stock market.

    I don’t think a Philadelphia Athletics Indicator would look very good either. And if the Minnesota Twins win the first two games of the World Series at home…well, let’s just say that you have been warned.

  2. SINGER commented on Feb 6

    thats actually pretty cool…GO GIANTS…It must suck to be a PATS fan right now…I’d love to get some perspective on their feelings!!!!

  3. F commented on Feb 6

    This is idiotic, because they have to ignore every other Yankees championship (who won in 1996, 1998, 1999) in order for it to work.

  4. Pool Shark commented on Feb 6

    I find it somewhat amusing that so many humans choose to live their lives vicariously through a bunch of overpaid, spoiled athletes.

    We won! We won!

    No, you didn’t do anything. Your favorite selected group of millionaire primadonna’s beat the other group of millionaire primadonnas.

    Fans of the losers now have permission to burn down their city.

    (‘Bread and circuses’)

  5. plantseeds commented on Feb 6

    “thats actually pretty cool…GO GIANTS…It must suck to be a PATS fan right now…I’d love to get some perspective on their feelings!!!!”

    check out Boston.com , click sports and review the “latest discussions forum” on the right side of the page, 1/3 way down – quite comical indeed.

  6. michael schumacher commented on Feb 6

    OT:

    Is anyone fed-up with minyanville lately??

    All they ever seem to do is push HB’s and financial stocks while disregarding anything fundamental.

    just don’t disagree with any of the authors as they will delete your posts. happened to me twice so I gave up on them.

    It seems that Tod Harrison has become Fox News the way he projects the home builder’s and the financial stocks.

    Always thought that having the Bull wearing the suit and the “boo” bear dressed as a hippie was just a little skewed…..but as Fox has become the comical news what better way to augment it than with a bunch of cartoons.

    Rant over..

    Ciao
    MS

  7. The Dirty Mac commented on Feb 6

    That’s a good point crack. IIRC, Mayor Koch suggested that the Giants have their SB XXI parade at the Vince Lombardi Service Area.

  8. Justin commented on Feb 6

    How about this: mid-term election years are always down, but not this last time; presidential election years are always up, but not – [fill in the blanks].

  9. Meds commented on Feb 6

    How about the 1994 Rangers? Economy was strong then! Oh yeah, no one likes hockey

  10. kk commented on Feb 6

    M.S. if your disagreements with the Minyanville authors are anything like your disagreements here (personal attacks on varient views) then no wonder they don’t want you around.

    Seriously, debate the opinions and don’t make your attacks so personal.

  11. druce commented on Feb 6

    The Metsies had a hell of a parade in ’86, the market soared 30%, then crashed. So I guess that works both ways.

    can we say spurious correlation?

    of course, maybe the reason Bernanke eased 125 basis points in two weeks was because he’s a Giants fan.

  12. Toddo commented on Feb 6

    People don’t want MS to post on their blogs ?!?!?!?!?!?!?

    I don’t believe it

  13. drey commented on Feb 6

    No question we make sports more important than they are and it would be easy to speculate about what may be missing in our own lives, no?

    That aside I have not taken so much pleasure in watching a sporting event in years – my wife and I were going nuts, in fact, and as Californians we didn’t even have a horse in the race! There were just too many good story lines, the perfect season, the cheating, Gmen as big underdogs, Eli’s emergence as a quiet leader who played flawlessly in the post season.

    And of course, the most remarkable single play (on both ends) we will ever see. It was perfection and sports fans need not feel guilty about enjoying it.

    Only downside is we still have to put up with those insufferable ’72 Miami Dolphins…

  14. Aaron commented on Feb 6

    Oh gosh, just what we need, more people believing this kind of stuff. The whole who wins the super bowl thing that people actually trade off of, and many others, are just silly.

  15. wunsacon commented on Feb 6

    >> those insufferable ’72 Miami Dolphins…

    They ARE insufferable, which is why I was cheering for the Pats.

    Let’s look at those insufferable ’72 Dolphins. During the regular season, they didn’t play any teams that ended better than 8-6. Meanwhile, the Pats during the regular season played 7 teams that ended up in the playoffs.

    “Perfect season” = statistical gift

    All it took was 3 more points (well, 4 more points).

    Darn.

    Well, congrats to the G-men.

  16. michael schumacher commented on Feb 7

    KK-

    You make it personal……..go read what I post there is no attack unless attacked.

    Try a reading comprehension course

    Ciao
    MS

  17. Longtime Giant Fan commented on Feb 8

    The last two super bowl parades were held at the meadlowlands parking lot! I can also remebering atending games at the Yale bowl which was a real crap place to go!

  18. roar commented on Feb 10

    Astrologically speaking its not very special.
    Everything goes in cycles.

    best

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