Last week, we discussed how not to get suckered into bad probability analysis when confronted with market history proving this or that (What Investors Need to Know About Historical Data).
We looked at several statistically insignificant examples.
This morning, Bill King points out another amusing coincidence: The Ticker Tape Parade Indicator:
• The NY Giants won their first Super Bowl in 1987; the Great US Stock Market Crash appeared later.
• The NY Giants won their second Super Bowl in 1991; the last US full-blown recession appeared; money center banks barely avoided the abyss.
• Before yesterday, the last NYC ticker-tape parade was 2000 (Yankees); the Great US Stock Bubble burst.
• The NY Giants won their third Super Bowl in 2008 and received a ticker-tape parade; head to the caves!
Now, you know I don’t believe any of these, but its still an amusing coincidence, on par with its forecasting acumen and mathematical likelihood of the Superbowl Indicator . . .