Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU) — three of the NASDAQ FOUR HORSEMAN — have been coming up gimpy since their FusionIQ timing sell signals (triggered at much higher levels several weeks ago).
These stocks have fallen precipitously since those Sells.
Only Research in Motion (RIMM) — which gapped open strongly yesterday — acts well. The other three horsemen stocks have clearly broken their uptrends, and are in the process of being repriced. We point this out because trading highly volatile names like these can be dangerous especially if one doesn’t have a Sell Discipline.
Unbiased, indicator-driven trading signals can help make you a better investor. Whether its based on technicals, fundamentals, valuation or quantitative research, having a non-emotional layer to your investing/trading plan is always helpful.
I am biased towards our signals (FusionIQ), but any objective timing method that would have gotten you out of the way in these 3 names weeks ago is a good thing — you would have avoided a lot of pain.
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Four Horseman of Nasdaq
note: Sell Signals are indicated with a red "S"
Apple (AAPL) 
Google (GOOG) 
See also ORCL
I thought AMZN was one of the four horseman, not BIDU.
Big Trouble… in contrarian thinking…..
Dennis Kneale just admited to the recession.
hang on, I have to rethink all my Thesis…
or does he have to admit to a bear market?
maybe he has to be scared to invest… maybe when he says “everyone has to just hold back and wait for things to calm down in the credit markets”
all those “rich” AAPL stock holders are going to hit the panic button anytime now……
Watching a stock get (potentially) cut in half from it’s high is pretty good entertainment but less entertaining if you watched it happen.
Ciao
MS
After looking at these charts, I don’t think you needed a computer program to tell you to sell the stocks in January. These were going up when everything else was going down aggressively. It was only a matter of time before gravity took control.
Selling now would be a disaster. All will recover lost ground probably sooner than later. Buying at a bottom is a good idea, if you are inclined to buy individual stocks. Me … I’m a sector person. I’m not nimble enough to work individual stocks. Take your eye off the ball at the wrong time and maybe be the chump. Groupings are more forgiving. You only have to watch the economy in general.
That’s the great thing about major market bottoms. Everything is a bargain, relatively speaking.
Roubini’s 12 point fantasy disaster scenario may be good way to scare impressionable wannabes, but is is plain simple crap. If you really believe his paranoia, then sell everything now because it will fall to zero soon. Including your house. Your job will probably disappear. Food will be too expensive for a while, then it will disappear because farmers will not be able to afford to grow it, due to high oil prices. Stock up on objects you can barter.
as much as I dig doug Kass, Tech was skrewed when he was calling a bottom….
After an “ok” call on a tradable low on Financials… you knew Hubris was going to get him…
Tech, is so 2010!!!
So when are you going to give us another sub deal on FusionIQ ? Maybe a six-month test drive ? :)
Speaking of alternative disciplines, and much as it pains, me the comment on looking at the charts by eyeball has merit.
Personally I was suggested circa early Dec. it was time to get out partly based on these guys bubbling over the trends so far but mostly on Barry-like, top-down macroecon analysis. Capex wouldn’t go up if the economy was slowing. Which has since been confirmed not just by the market but but three major outlook downward revisions by GArtner, et.al.
Funny how that macro stuff works, eh Barry ? :)
My take is is that the Markets seem to be waiting to see which way these ‘Triangles’/Pennants break– the ones that have been setting up on the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq since the January 22-23 lows. Although they are tilted slightly upwards on the Dow and S&P 500, I think given the economic backdrop, and the short amount of time we’ve been in this downturn, the ‘Break” will be to the downside to retest the January lows– and likely lower still for this leg. I know this seems fairly obvious to most but the question I have is why this retest hasn’t happened sooner. I get the sense this Market is Waiting for “Favorable News” about the ‘Ratings’ (I use that word loosely) from the ratings agencies on the Monoline Insurers (possibly old news priced into the Market), and/or the possibility that the Bush Administration will Orchestrate some form of ‘Bail-Out’ of the Major Banks/HomeOwners by buying up defaulting Home Mortgages/Distressed Paper (as Barry discussed here the other day linking to Portfolio.com)– whether its through a plan similar to the one proposed by the director of OTS, FHA secure, relying on Fannie, Freddie, and the F.H.L.B. to ease the credit crunch or sending government checks directly to distressed borrowers (Greenspan’s Idea). See also the N.Y. Times article linked here– similar to Portfolio.com
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5087&em&en=16460d2108a9e643&ex=1203829200
Given the sustained rise in commodity prices (energy prices), and tightening of credit, I would have thought we would have tested the January lows long before now…
>>That’s the great thing about major market bottoms. Everything is a bargain, relatively speaking.>>
And relative to what??? An inflated cheap money induced credit love fest bloated market??
Nice try….what you call an argument is rooted in your own perception….and nothing more.
Ciao
MS
The market is NOWHERE…I repest NOWHERE near a bottom. 10 and 21 day put calls are nearer their lows of the range than highs. Look at the short interest on QQQQ and its star components (just click my handy link and use the dropdown list which is already populated with 12 top Nas stocks). Short interest is absurdly low, with some stock at a short ratio of .5!!! There will be no short squeezes or covering rallies anytime soon. Buy QID.
QQQQ Short Interest
Please, let Dennis save the world.
Isn’t Tech that which has been touted by alot of analysts lately as being a safe haven?
BlackBerry > iPhone
“Selling now would be a disaster.”
Back in 2000, INTC, like AAPL now, was one of the high fliers, but then fell from its high of $76 in the middle of 2000 to $38 per share 6 months later. Guess what all the CNBC talking heads were saying? Now is the time to buy. Had you bought then, you would have seen the stock continue down for almost 2 more years to a low of about $12. And had you continued to hold it, it would have recovered only partially, never going over $35. Now it is only $20. My point is that it can be quite risky to continue with the “buy on the dips” mentality when the market trend has reversed. INTC is still an excellent company, but market forces can overwhelm even the best companies.
APPLE may not see $200 again for years.
Pat G.
Yes……by the same people who touted pharma as safe from this mess too. Schering Plough might have a slightly different take on that strategy now…..a take that cost them several billions…..
Look! It’s another buying opportunity! How swell!
Ain’t gonna get any cheaper, right?
that right shoulder on the S&P500 gonna break down soon. giving me a crick in the neck just waiting for it. but it’s coming. then generational double-top 2000-2007 and you’re gonna want to see lots of cash in the old account. lots. anything else will make u holla. (aside from Cramer’s 4 Hosses, how ’bout the nightly show where Finerman liked Crocs in retail and Adami liked APOL among so-called educational retailers. is someone just waiting for the talking heads to set these things up then shooting them? looks like it. weak holders)
I think I know why this dip seems so scary.
Today, instant information on everything is available over the internet. At Y2K, the internet was far less developed. That was still a time of letters to the editor and weekly analysis from Business Week and Fortune. The best information was usually weeks old and limited by the grasp of the author of the story being read. People were still in awe of ‘trained experts’.
Today, anyone with DSL has instant access to the world, to intelligent analysis, and to idiots and insane people who have nothing else to do. Sales pundits from brokerage houses now pose as ‘trained experts’. As does anyone who can string together enough sentences to write a book on economics, real or faux.
This is the world’s first real time significant stock market correction. And everyone with an opinion is an economist. And most trained economists really can’t forecast better than people who have mastered the strait edge. (Although trained economists can make their opinions sound more scholarly.) And the few economists who can forecast a bit are ignored in favor of mass hysteria.
When the market was at a top, few noticed that gravity existed and would eventually reassert itself. The inverse is true today. And the masses are just as stubborn in their belief, only this time they are looking in the other direction.
One nice thing about people is their short attention span. Soon, people will burn out on the daily dose of pessimism and follow a new fad, which will include markets that trend upward.
There’s nothing scary about this dip. I’ve made boatloads this week and YTD. And I did pretty well last year, too. Market movements are opportunities. Market movements like this, that you could see from a mile away while the cheerleaders kept looking backwards at profits, have been an enormously fantastic opportunity.
I don’t mean to be an ass….
I’m feeling a little bull panic…
I’m going to need to see that get to a real emotional outburst/ melt down level. to get to the point I’ll feel like the market is a buy again.
If that was not the best example of the pot calling the kettle black I have ever seen.
hey barry, nice calls, you are at the top of your game, where can i find out more info about this fusion IG?
I wouldn’t argue….
but you may never know if that is because I don’t disagree… or because I think it’s a waist of time…
http://fusioniqrank.com/products.php
Be sure to click around
Joshin: “I thought AMZN was one of the four horseman, not BIDU.”
Nope. BIDET is number four.
Barry: I REALLY like the design of your FusionIQ site. One small problem: apostrophes are replaced with question marks.
As to your paid subscriber service, can you generate a daily buy/sell, or a weekly or monthly list?
Speaking as a non-subscriber who can’t benefit, I like your ex-post signal posts.
What would be really interesting would be to see a comment on a signal that failed. Often the strength of a system is best highlighted by its failures.