Via Mike Panzner, comes this list of the 50 down 50:
Since the S&P 500 hit a closing peak of 1565.15 on October 9th,
the benchmark has lost 18.11% (through this morning). However, 50
stocks, or 10% of the index constituents, have actually fallen by more
than 50%. Not surprisingly, the biggest losers are financials, though
the list also includes a few dogs from the auto, newspaper and
technology sectors, among others.
I am curious about the following: How many times has this happened before? What did the markets do 6, 12 and 24 months afterwards?
Click through for the infamous 50:
50 Stocks Down 50% or more from the S&P500
Freddie Mac FRE -95.16%
Fannie Mae FNM -92.52%
Wamu Inc WM -89.75%
Mbia Inc MBI -84.53%
Natl City Corp NCC -80.85%
Mgic Invt Corp MTG -80.14%
Lehman Bros Hldg LEH -79.38%
E*Trade Financia ETFC -78.65%
Xl Capital Ltd-A XL -76.18%
Cit Group Inc CIT -75.91%
Regions Financia RF -73.10%
Amer Intl Group AIG -73.04%
General Motors GM -72.82%
Wachovia Corp WB -72.44%
Sandisk Corp SNDK -70.58%
Slm Corp SLM -70.54%
Office Depot Inc ODP -68.36%
Tesoro Corp TSO -67.48%
Merrill Lynch MER -66.86%
Keycorp KEY -66.66%
Zions Bancorp ZION -65.47%
Whole Foods Mkt WFMI -65.46%
Titanium Metals TIE -64.53%
Nvidia Corp NVDA -62.63%
First Horizon Na FHN -62.61%
Citigroup Inc C -61.61%
Harman Intl HAR -61.12%
Gannett Co GCI -60.91%
Huntington Banc HBAN -60.34%
Qwest Communicat Q -60.28%
Ciena Corp CIEN -60.16%
Marshall &Ilsley MI -59.55%
Allegheny Tech ATI -58.97%
Fifth Third Banc FITB -58.67%
Sun Microsystems JAVA -58.52%
Gen Growth Prop GGP -57.64%
Adv Micro Device AMD -55.91%
Liz Claiborne LIZ -55.76%
Micron Tech MU -55.64%
American Capital ACAS -54.09%
Meredith Corp MDP -53.58%
Nyse Euronext NYX -53.16%
Valero Energy VLO -53.05%
Legg Mason Inc LM -52.77%
Lennar Corp-Cl A LEN -52.45%
Cb Richard Ell-A CBG -51.57%
Comerica Inc CMA -51.53%
Genworth Financi GNW -51.45%
Sprint Nextel Co S -50.27%
Sovereign Bancor SOV -50.06%
Seems like the bulls decided to have a suckers rally today.
Again.
Hope they think its funny and that it pays off, but Im not really sure of it.
Postulation: if you take away all the injected liquidity over the past year,
what would the indexes be then?
Any suggestions?
Pretty weak rally. Not so many suckers around this week.
I maintain that this was a great week to go to the beach or play golf. Next week we will see some real action.
NOR: without the interest rate cuts, TAF and other gimmickry, my guess is SPX 1060. But we are going to go there anyway.
Ah,
This list is the caste of equities known as the untouchables.
“I am curious about the following: How many times has this happened before? What did the markets do 6, 12 and 24 months afterwards?”
We only need to look at the last bear market to see what happens. Last time, tech got killed first. Other stocks did well or at least held it together. But, eventually, the bear sunk his teeth into everything.
My wild guess would be that this bear market ends — at the earliest — when we have at least 150 stocks below 50%.
Yeah sure RD, let’s all listen to North. I like his predictions so far:
“In 1986, North co-authored with Arthur Robinson Fighting Chance: Ten Feet to Survival, a book advocating a nationwide civil defense program to construct underground shelters protecting US citizens against an anticipated nuclear first strike by the Soviet Union. In 1987, North predicted in Remnant Review that an AIDS epidemic would overwhelm the world’s hospitals by 1992.
In the late 1990s, North predicted that Y2K could be a global catastrophe, and promoted his theories in the media and in his Remnant Review newsletter and website. In December 1999 he retracted his position, and in a January 2000 ICE newsletter, he publicly apologized for his mistaken view of Y2K, saying he was baffled as to why the transition didn’t bring global chaos.”
This list of 50% losers would swell substantially if Israel bombs Iran, so RD’s post isn’t as off topic as it might seem. That would be a Black Swan event that pushes us over the edge, IMHO. I am just cynical enough to think the Bush administration would wink at Israel in tacit approval of the operation with an eye to making McCain’s so called foreign policy credentials a stronger factor in the upcoming election.
You forgot BEAR STEARNS.
@Alicia,
Wall Street is already a fantasy stock market platform… ;-)
Barry,
Any way of creating a filter for some of the wack jobs treating us to the geopolitical doomsday posts? :
“Isreal nukes Iran nukes US nukes Russia….”
Seriously this stuff is a bit off topic and about as illuminating as the daily gold price conspiracy stories.
Well, one way to look at it is any one of these stocks need to recover just one-quarter of what they lost since Oct 9th to provide a pretty darn nice return on a % basis. So the real question is, which of them will and which of them won’t.
I’m curious: how would this mutual fund do?
Circuit City
Washington Mutual
Advanced Micro Devices
General Motors
Tenet Healthcare Corporation
Rite Aid
Three or four of these companies could go bankrupt and this could still do very well if one or two of these stocks resurrects.
I follow Moe Ansari radio show for 20 years now, he has compared to all past bear markets, he said this is like 2001 when the S&P p/e was 10-11. This correlates to 1170. That’s the number he is looking for before committing “investment” money, his wave-counts/cycles tell him a low to be made end of Sept.(fwiw)
To answer the question has it happened before. Yes. In fact, over the past 10 years, 347 stocks in the S&P 500 have had corrections of over 50%, with an average 61% drawdown. See more here: http://smartstops.net/LearnMorePages/ExitStrategyComparisons.aspx#SP500RiskAnalysis
The groupthink contained in the comments to this blog is mind-boggling. Why don’t you people get out of your caves and see that if things were so bad, rail shipments would not be up and Apple stores would be empty. You people need to get lives.
Barry,
I wonder why people are bringing this up now when 73 members of the S&P 500 were down 50% on July 15th. The prior bear market saw 122 stocks down at least 50% at the same time in the first year. Either this bear market is going to be less painful than the last (lets hope) or we are in for a rough couple of months (more likely).
“This list of 50% losers would swell substantially if Israel bombs Iran”
I can think of some stocks that would go up on that news.
This is really incredible. These are no small potatoes!
This is really incredible. These are no small potatoes!
Great watch list! Will take a look at these later this year…