The Bull Market Actually Isn’t 10 Years Old
The worst ended in 2009. But save your birthday wishes for March 28. And bring six candles to the party.
Bloomberg, March 12, 2019
A decade ago this week, the Great Financial Crisis was in full throat as fear was rampant. The economy had been in free fall; after four months of reporting monthly job losses of more than 700,000, the Department of Labor printed an 800,000 job loss in March 2009. Markets had been cut in half and worse. Investors dumped stocks in a blind panic. Capitulation was at hand.
March 9th is the anniversary of the “generational lows” in the markets, when the major indices hit their lowest points before reversing as sellers exhausted themselves. The S&P 500 index hit marked 666 as its low. Nasdaq and the Dow Industrials made fresh lows and reversed as well.
Despite all you may have read in the mainstream financial press – see this, this, this, or this – March 9th is not the birthday of the bull market. Blame social media and the rise of click-bait buzzy headlines for the spread of this misinformation.
Don’t take my word for it. Search for any authoritative source from the communities of technicians, strategists or quants that convincingly argue bull markets begin from bear market lows. Save you a click: you can’t, ‘cause it ain’t. If it were, there would be all sorts of absurd ramifications that would give traders and investors fits.
I originally published this at Bloomberg, March 12, 2019. All of my Bloomberg columns can be found here and here.