I have made my views on the folly of forecast and the perils of predictions absolutely clear. (See all of these dating back to 2005). But sometimes, a question about the future can be framed in a way that is very different than asking for a forecast.
Last Summer at Camp Kotok, Dave Nadig posed the following question:
“What worries you the most that isn’t getting enough attention?”
I really like the thinking behind this question (I may have to steal it for MiB). Dave approaches this issue from a different angle than others — difficult to predict, non-zero probabilities — if you unpack it, it actually is asking several different questions in one:
Tell us your thinking about the future…
What is the crowd (mostly) unaware of?
What risks are thought of as very low when they may be in reality higher than that?
My answer: The under rated potential for civil unrest, due to income inequality and ongoing systemic problems. The full discussion is above, but if you want to hear just my answer, here is a short 3 minute excerpt:
Dave Nadig, Tom Lydon and I will be discussing this issue as it related to what you see spilling out of your televisions lately, as well as other investment related issues later today. It is free, but to listen or ask a question, you must use this registration link.