What If There is No ‘Secular Slowdown’?
In light of the big rise in the June payrolls, I wanted to offer some broader context about the economy. Understanding the swings of...
Can This Economy Take a Punch?
One of the main signs of the health of the global and U.S. economies is its ability to absorb a blow, and shake it off. At least...
Secular Bull Markets Can Last a Long Time
We have seen this chart many times before, but I like the way this is displayed: Source: Federated
When “Fringe” Sentiment Dominates Psychology
It is never wise to ignore market, economic or voter sentiment. Discount it, yes. Put it into broader context, for sure. But ignore it at...
S&P500 Cycle Trend, 1997-2016
One of my favorite quarterly chart books, updated for Q2, from JPM: S&P500 Cycle Trend, 1997-2016 Source: JPM ...
Overestimating Recession Odds
My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at why so many pundits overstate the...
Are Earnings Forecasting a Recession?
One of the big concerns for investors is the health of corporate profits, which have declined in the three of the past four...