Yesterday’s Bear is Back table was re-envisioned and reformatted as a chart by Jake:
via Jake
I don’t really buy breaking the 2000 Crash into 2 pieces, but that’s how it was done in the table . . .
The Bear is Back, Part II
July 6, 2008 10:30am by Barry Ritholtz
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Another Not-Quite-a Linkfest
I here the bull saying that the bear market is almost over. I think it is going to be one of the longer bears. Eli broad says it is the worst since WWII
Pardon my intellectual laziness, but I’m too busy today to look hard. How was the beginning of the bear market determines in the table that was published?
~~~
<>BR: We’re too intellectually lazy to look that up . . .
I don’t buy the before and after distinction either. Until you can quantify the beginning and the end of denial, migration, and panic stages, who is to really know if/which bubble we are busy correcting right now? If the stock market does any macro discounting at all, and I believe it does, this has to be taken into account. Counting day is like hoping it won’t rain on your barbeque.
“I don’t really buy breaking the 2000 Crash…”
What “2000 crash” ?
* DJIA CLOSE JAN 03RD, 2000: 11,357.51
* DJIA CLOSE JAN 14TH, 2000: 11,722.98
* DJIA CLOSE DEC 29TH, 2000: 10,786.85
~~~
BR: I’m not sure if you are joking . . .
YES THERE WAS NO 2000 CRASH. PLEASE REFER TO MINITRU DIRECTIVE 03-200/C AND UPDATE YOUR FREEDOM TERMINALS.
Scary… it always takes longer to recover from a bear than it takes for it to form.
it always takes longer to recover from a bear than it takes for it to form
Actually I think the chart is just confusing, with the 2nd bar being the total length of the bear market.
When is the bear over? Do you have to wait for a new high or is it over when the market starts back up from the lows?
This guy is surprisingly innumerate, assuming that the average is what we will automatically get:
VINCE FARRELL WRITES
More detail on bear markets from this past weekend’s Barron’s. Quoting Bespoke Investment Group, Barron’s agrees with our note last week that the average bear market sees a decline of about 30%. Further, when the market had declined the required 20% to be declared a bear, the downturn was, on average, 74% complete in terms of length. If that is so, we have 118 days to run and another 10% on the downside.