Post-2016 Election, Politics Made for Bad Investment Decisions

Dear Lord, are people still getting this wrong? After all of my admonishments about this, so few seem to have learned anything? Oh, well, someone has to be on the wrong side of each trade.

Here is Bloomberg:

“The U.S. stock market is booming, but your share of the gains probably depends on whether you voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Following the election, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to increase their investments in U.S. stocks, according to a working paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The authors, from MIT’s Sloan School of Management, analyzed portfolio holdings of millions of anonymized households with trillions of dollars of wealth.”

Its almost as if it is in your nature to make decision based on gut emotion rather than intellect and logic . . .

Partisan bias of investors was very obvious in the 2000s. The Bush Tax Cuts are a perfect example:

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Republicans should not be snickering. After the 2008 presidential elections, the right side of the aisle warned than the new President was a Muslim/Kenyan/socialist. He was going to destroy markets. The ideological arguments missed so many obvious signs that were obvious to more objective investors:

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

The very first article I published in the Washington Post was the simple admonition that politics and investing don’t mix.  This latest NBER paper shows few have learned the lesson about mixing politics and investing

More about this tomorrow . . .

 

 

Source:
Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice
Maarten Meeuwis, Jonathan A. Parker, Antoinette Schoar and Duncan I. Simester
NBER Working Paper 25108, September 2018

 

Previously:
Love Trump? Hate Him? That’s No Way to Invest. (January 20, 2017)

Keep Politics Out of Your Investing Strategy (February 17, 2016)

The Dangers of Investing via Politics (July 16, 2012)

Why politics and investing don’t mix (February 6, 2011)

Politics & Investing

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