Rate of Positive Tests in the US and States Over Time
Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
So close!
In early June, the infection rate of Covid-19 testing had fallen way below 5%. Thanks to the combination of social distancing, sheltering in place, mask usage, and contact tracing we had lowered the number of daily new cases to their lowest level since early in the pandemic. Looks like June 10 was the low, with a 7-day moving average of 17,123 new positive tests out of 419,896 administered tests.
But uh-oh!
As you can see, that average is turning up. What has changed has been the move out of our self-quarantines. We lost focus, got lazy, politically weaponized Covid. We ignored Fauci, dammit! Protesters were greeted with tear gas — a great way to spread infectious respiratory diseases. And we have re-opened states that have not been following CDC guidelines.
The results can be clearly seen in the chart (above): Total daily number of virus tests conducted (upper bar chart), the number of new infections (lower bar chart) plus the 7 day moving average of new infections (line overlay). It is clear that after bottoming earlier this month, the trend line (blue) is rising. Note from the end of March to the beginning of June, daily testing INCREASED while daily new cases DECREASED.
The data reveals this simple fact: The increase in Covid-19 cases in the USA is NOT caused by an increase in testing.
Here is the Bulwark’s Jonathan V. Last: “Getting a test doesn’t change the base reality. Testing merely reveals an individual slice of reality and quantifies it for observers to see. Ideally, the world of testing tracks very closely with the real world and gives us a good picture of what the real world looks like.”
In related news: NY, NJ and CT require travelers from states with high coronavirus rates to quarantine for two weeks — which is ironic, since some states were not allowing NYS license plated cars to come into their states. The biggest surge has been in the South but the numbers have been getting less good all over. NY, NJ, Connecticut and Massachusetts learned the hard way how to get this under control. Texas figured it out after a recent spike. Florida remains Flori-duh.
increased daily testing steadily for months as new daily cases went down. Anyone saying something different is a liar.
Guidelines from WHO suggests countries with extensive testing for COVID-19, should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days. Looks like we are coming up on that date. Don’t be surprised when the E.U. Bars American Travelers as It Reopens Borders, Citing Failures on Virus – because we suck at this.
