Recession Calls Are Premature
Invictus here: There are those of us, like me, who are always looking at numbers and data. It’s just in our DNA. What do the data...
Corrections and Recessions, Bear Markets and Crashes
Corrections, Bear Markets, Recessions and Crashes Volatility comes in waves. Bloomberg, January 22, 2016 The recent...
Secular vs Cyclical Cycles: 1942, 1974, and 2009
From Stephen Suttmeier, Technical Research Analyst, at Merrill Lynch: The overlay chart of the S&P 500 lined up off the...
To Raise, Or Not To Raise…
@TBPInvictus here: I’m not an economist, but I count several very good ones among my friends. (Exciting, right? Note to self: get...
Labor Force Participation Rate is a Non-Issue
@TBPInvictus here In my recent piece on U-6, I mentioned that the labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a favorite target for critics...
Bear Markets and Subsequent Bull Runs
Source: JPM Quarterly Chart Book Each quarter, I eagerly look forward to the arrival of JPMorgan’s interactive Guide to the...
Investor Sentiment and the Business Cycle
Nice way to show how the investor sentiment cycle lags behind the business cycle, yet manages to follow it . . . Source: Dunno...
Economic instability in China raises the risks of global deflation
September Business Cycle Update: Economic instability in China raises the risks of global deflation, but U.S. economy is solid Source:...